100 000 nya jobb i Sverige i en Cirkulär ekonomi

24 april 2015

I mitten av april presenterades rapporten” The Circular Economy and Benefits for Society - Swedish Case Study Shows Jobs and Climate as Clear Winners” vid en konferens I EU-parlamentet. ÅI har varit medfinanisiär av studien som tagits fram av Club of Rome med Anders Wijkman och Kristian Skånberg som författare.

Den 11 maj kommer rapporten presenteras i Sverige vid ett frukostmöte där klimat- och miljöminister Åsa Romson m fl kommer medverka. Håll utkik efter mer information på ÅI:s hemsida.

Nedan sammanfattas de viktigaste slutsatserna på engelska. 

Case Study findings

By making use of a traditional Input/Output model – which accounts for the interdependencies of different branches of a national economy - the report assesses what the likely effects would be on carbon emissions and job opportunities in Sweden by:

  • Enhancing energy efficiency. The Swedish economy would become 25% more energy-efficient.

  • Increasing the percentage of renewable energy in the energy mix. In the case of Sweden, from today´s 50% to 75%, cutting fossil fuel use in half.
  • Organizing manufacturing along the lines of a materially-efficient circular/performance-based economy, i e by extending wealth, minimizing waste and maximizing the reuse and recycling of materials.  A combination of a 25% overall increase in material efficiency + half of virgin materials being replaced by secondary materials + doubling the life-time of long-lived consumer products compared to today.

 The results are most intriguing. For each and every-one of the decoupling alternatives there would be a significant reduction in carbon emissions. In addition, the employment effect would be clearly positive.

The results in detail were the following:

  • The renewable-scenario led to a 50% reduction in carbon emissions, created some 5 000 additional jobs (+0,1%) and improved the trade surplus with roughly 1% of GDP 
  • The energy-efficiency-scenario cut carbon emissions by 28%, created some 20.000 additional jobs (+0,5%) and improved the trade balance with 0,2% of GDP.
  • The job increase is partly temporary in nature but would last for many years, probably a couple of decades, during which time the necessary investments in retrofitting of old buildings and other efficiency improvements are undertaken.
  •  The material efficiency-scenario cut carbon emissions by an estimated 10%, created more than 50.000 additional jobs (+1-2%) and increased the trade surplus significantly (more than 2% of GDP). The jobs generated are permanent as a consequence of the changes in the goods-to-services ratio in the economy.

 If all three decoupling strategies are being pursued together the results would be substantial:

  • Carbon emissions are likely to be cut by almost 70%.
  • The number of additional jobs would likely exceed 100.000 – representing between 2 and 3% of the labour-force and in fact cutting unemployment by at least a quarter, may be even half in Sweden.
  • The improvement in the trade balance would be above 3% of GDP, i.e. at least 10 billion € a year.

 The result of the simulation is like a snapshot. It describes a hypothetical situation, based on certain assumptions. The simulations were based on a combination of manipulating sector supply chains – in favour of renewables and secondary materials - and anticipating at the same time a significantly higher overall level of resource efficiency in the economy